The University Presidents are No-Talent Ass Clowns Too

Okay, so I've decided to simply pretend that the college football post season is run similarly to the college basketball post season, as it should be, and see what the glorious result would be. Here are the parameters:

1) There will be a 16 team playoff
2) Every Division 1-A conference champion gets an automatic bid (there are 11)
3) Five (5) at-large selections will round out the field (the BCS will be used like the RPI, as a guidance tool but not as the final say)
4) The first three rounds will be played at the home sites of the higher seeded team
5) The championship game and third place game will rotate among the Fiesta, Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls; the two bowls not in the rotation that year will select the next two games based on traditional tie-ins.
6) Four more bowls (to be determined) will be brought in to select the remaining eight teams according to traditional tie-ins.
7) Let's Begin!!

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

ACC: Wake Forest
Big 12: Texas
Big East: Rutgers
Big Ten: Ohio State
C-USA: Houston
MAC: Central Michigan
Mountain West: BYU
Pac Ten: USC
SEC: Arkansas
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
WAC: Boise State

LAST FIVE IN: Michigan, Florida, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Wisconsin
FIRST FIVE OUT: Louisville, LSU, Auburn, California, Oklahoma
NEXT FIVE OUT: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Tennessee

The Bracket (home teams in bold):

(1) Ohio State
(16) Mid. Tennessee

(8) West Virginia
(9) Wisconsin

(4) Florida
(13) BYU

(5) Notre Dame
(12) Wake Forest

(3) USC
(14) Houston

(6) Rutgers
(11) Texas

(7) Arkansas
(10) Boise State

(2) Michigan
(15) Central Michigan

BLOG TITLE CHANGE

I think this blog's title should officially be changed to "THE MEN'S BASKETBALL SELECTION COMMITTEE IS A BUNCH OF NO TALENT ASS-CLOWNS"

- There is no way, just no way that Air Force belongs in this field. They had zero wins against the Top 50, three losses against teams outside the Top 100 (including their last game in the MWC quarters against Wyoming). They're overall strenth of schedule was 158, and they're non-conference strength of schedule was, wait for it, 273!!!! It makes you wonder what the committee members would score on the Wonderlic test doesn't it Vince?

- There are other questionable calls including Texas A&M who played nobody, and Alabama who won only three games away from home all year...THREE!!!! But Utah State has to be the team that people are scratching their heads wondering how. The Aggies did win 7 of their last 10 as well as 60% of their games away from home, but with a marginal RPI in a marginal league, it's surprising they beat out the likes of Cincinnati and Missouri State for a bid.

- Speaking of those snubbed teams, it's time for me to call out the selection committee for what it is...a bunch of hypocritical liars!

Lie #1) "We don't look at conferences" - BS! They absolutely look at conferences. Oh they may not actually say "The Big East can't get 9 teams in," but every one of them are thinking it. You know how I know? Because it is the absolute only reason Cincinnati could have been left out of this field in favor of Air Force. They were going to put the winner of the Big East tournament game between Syracuse and Cincinnati in, and that's what they did. Also, if Missouri State was in any other league they wouldn't have even been debated, but they weren't and they got screwed.

Lie #2) "Non-Conference scheduling matters" - 1/2 BS! This is 1/2 BS because while they seemed to have been targeting Florida State with this claim, they still allowed Texas A&M in with just as bad of a non-conference slate. Also, I already mentioned Air Force's non-conference SOS of 273...so why the inconsistency?

- Oh and as for the seeding, which is almost as bizzare as the selection, look no further than Tennessee, who we had as a #4 and actually bumped to a #5 for Kansas after Sunday's games. the Vols fell apart over the last three weeks and didn't get punished for it AT ALL. California as a #7 seed is way too high, as their numbers barely supported being included in the field at all!

- More seeding travesties are: Indiana - projected as a #10 and received a #6, Bradley - projected as a #8 and received a #13, indicating they along with #13 Air Force were the last two teams selected, Southern Illinois - projected as a #7 seed and received a #11.

- As for our projections, recall that while our numbers didn't support putting Texas A&M and Alabama in the field, we acknowledged that they would more than likely get bids. Air Force and Utah State are out of left field, and we don't feel the least bit bad about missing those insane selections.

Stay tuned for our tournament picks, Cinderella teams, and Final Four projections later in the week!

LAST MINUTE CHANGES!

It's never too late to make a couple of last minute changes. Here they are:

Memphis: Congrats, you're now a 1-seed.
Ohio State: You sucked today. Down to two you go.

Boston College: You now be a three.
Pittsburgh: You now be a four.

Kansas: Nice win. Up to a four.
Tennessee: You sucked at the SEC. Down to five you go.

IT'S GO TIME!

Wow, what a day of hoops yesterday! I basically watched all or part of every game, and I think the game of the day was the A-10 battle between St. Joes and Xavier. Nevada / Utah State was also fun to watch, and you couldn't help but enjoy watching North Carolina and Boston College. That was probably the most well-played game of the day.

Enough of the soft stuff though, let's get right down to it.

The 1s: Connecticut, Villanova, Duke, Ohio State
The 2s: Texas, Memphis, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 3s: Illinois, Iowa, UCLA, Pittsburgh
The 4s: Boston College, LSU, Tennessee, Florida
The 5s: George Washington, Michigan State, Kansas, Nevada
The 6s: Syracuse, Washington, West Virginia, Oklahoma
The 7s: Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
The 8s: Georgetown, UAB, Wisconsin, Bradley
The 9s: UNC Wilmington, Marquette, Arkansas, Bucknell
The 10s: Hofstra, Indiana, George Mason, Arizona
The 11s: NC State, Creighton, Cincinnati, Kentucky
The 12s: San Diego State, Seton Hall, Kent State, California
The 13s: Murray State, Wisc.-Milwaukee, Montana, South Alabama
The 14s: Iona, Northwestern State, Winthrop, Xavier
The 15s: Pacific, Davidson, Pennsylvania, Belmont
The 16s: Albany, Oral Roberts, Southern, Monmouth, Hampton

Last Four In: Cincinnati, NC State, Seton Hall, California
First Four Out: St. Joseph's, Alabama, Michigan, Texas A&M
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Maryland, Houston, Utah State

- Our numbers STILL do not have Texas A&M in, although in reality they probably will. But seriously folks, you have to look at who they've played and who they've beaten. The Aggies played absolutely one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (#240) and for the most part bought their first 10 wins. And I'll say it again. They did not play a game out of College Station until JANUARY!!! And they lost that game @ Pacific. Texas A&M has one good win. That's it. This is also the same team that beat Baylor twice by a combined six points (and could have easily lost either one), needed overtime to beat lowly Iowa State, and lost to Kansas State. If it hadn't been for the late win over Texas, we wouldn't even be discussing this. So why is everyone so intent on calling it a lock? Let's keep the Aggies on the table for discussion.

- Another team that has been a lock for most of the year but now is in serious trouble is Alabama. The Tide are actually now the second team out according to our numbers, and if South Carolina should win today, it would almost certainly doom them to the NIT.

- California has now slipped into the field by virtue of Bama's fall and playing UCLA in an RPI booster loss. The Bears looked good at times yesterday, but were completely overmatched by a Bruin team who could make a serious run at the Final Four.

- If there was any doubt about UAB's resume, they played well enough against Memphis yesterday to erase those doubts. Remember that the C-USA tourney was in Memphis, so that was basically a road game for the Blazers.

- I'm going to say this right now. If Missouri State doesn't get into this field, then the RPI needs to either be modified, or just flat out abolished. There is no way a team in the top 20 of any ranking system should be doubted for a bid, and that's exactly what is happening. Of course, there is no way of knowing what the committee is thinking until we see the brackets, so maybe it's just all the experts being idiots.

- Continuing on this rant, can someone please tell me why a team like Florida State (who has now fallen completely off our bubble board) could even be considered for a bid over a team like Hofstra? Let's put their two resumes back to back.

Florida State: RPI: 62, Last Ten Games: 6-4, Record Away From Home: 6-7, Top 50 Ws: 2
Hofstra: RPI: 30, Last Ten Games: 8-2, Record Away From Home: 11-6, Top 50 Ws: 3

How is this even a discussion? Again maybe the only place a comparison like this is being debated is on the set of ESPN, and not in the committee room. I can only hope that's the case.

- The final five championship games will be decided today with the SEC championship between Florida and South Carolina the only one with bubble implications.

- That being said, the race for the final #1 seed is still very much alive between Ohio State, Texas and Memphis. The Tigers have done all they can, but if the Buckeyes win today, how can the regular season and tournament champ of the best league not be a #1 seed? I don't think that can happen. In fact, I think it would be a crime if that happened. If they lose however and Texas beats Kansas in the Big 12 championship, look for the Longhorns to stake claim to the final #1. Both teams losing should slide Memphis back into the position by default.

Today's games start in about 45 minutes, and the selection show is now just over 5 hours away. Enjoy the games and I'll have one more post before the show begins with our final projections. We'll also have more posts tomorrow discussing the selections, and then moving on to predicting our final four!

SELECTION EVE!

Okay everybody, it's Selection Sunday Eve and things are winding down, although not really settling down. First, here is our latest field:

The 1s: Connecticut, Duke, Villanova, Ohio State
The 2s: Texas, North Carolina, Memphis, Illinois
The 3s: Gonzaga, Iowa, Pittsburgh, UCLA
The 4s: LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Boston College
The 5s: Michigan State, George Washington, Washington, West Virginia
The 6s: Kansas, Oklahoma, Nevada, Syracuse
The 7s: Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
The 8s: Georgetown, UAB, Wisconsin, Marquette
The 9s: UNC Wilmington, Indiana, Bradley, Arkansas
The 10s: Hofstra, Arizona, Bucknell, George Mason
The 11s: N.C. State, Kentucky, Creighton, Cincinnati
The 12s: St. Joseph's, San Diego State, Alabama, Seton Hall
The 13s: Kent State, Murray State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Montana
The 14s: Iona, Northwestern State, South Alabama, Winthrop
The 15s: Pacific, Davidson, Pennsylvania, Belmont
The 16s: Delaware St., Albany, Oral Roberts, Southern, Monmouth

Last Four In: UAB, Alabama, N.C. State, Seton Hall
First Four Out: California, Michigan, Texas A&M, Maryland
Next Four Out: Houston, Utah State, Western Kentucky, Florida State

Notes:

- Obviously conventional wisdom is that Texas A&M is in already, and that's probably true, but their overall resume just doesn't support it. They have one Top-50 win (Texas) and an embarrasing non-conference schedule to go along with a poor record (4-7) away from home. Most likely the RPI bump the Aggies will get by playing Texas today will push them into the last slot.

- Another conventional wisdom pearl has California in, and again that's probably true. And much like A&M, the RPI bump the Bears will get today playing UCLA will push them in. But let's be real here, a mid-50s RPI team should never be a lock (Alabama fans should pay attention to that as well).

- It's also time to pull North Carolina State out of the lock column after losing four in a row and tumbling down into the high 40s in RPI.

- Memphis has finished off UAB to claim the Conference USA championship. It will be interesting to see what UAB's new numbers look like, although my guess is the Blazers will be fine.

- Albany is blowing out Vermont in the America East final, and will most likely go on to face one of the #1 seeds in next week's NCAA Tournament.

- Assuming that A&M and Cal are both in (although our numbers indicate otherwise), the big game of the day will be very late tonight when Utah State and Nevada hook up for the WAC Conference championship. The Wolfpack is definitely in the field and if Utah State were to win, a bubble team would be forced out.

- Most of the other games today are primarily for seeding purposes, and it will be interesting to see what Syracuse will finally rise to when all is said and done at Madison Square Garden.

Enjoy the games everyone!

CASUAL FRIDAY

There's nothing casual about this Friday, as the big boys in the Big 12 and Big 10 finally get into action, and the Patriot League (Bucknell v. Holy Cross) crowns their champion in a game that all bubble teams will be watching feverishly.

EIGHT MEN IN: Creighton, George Mason, Arizona, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Alabama, UAB, Seton Hall

EIGHT MEN OUT: California, Michigan, Maryland, Houston, Texas A&M, Colorado, Western Kentucky, Florida State

Morning Notes:

- California took care of business against USC in the 1st round of the Pac-10 Tournament late last night, putting them in excellent position to get a bid. They are actually the first team out according to our numbers this morning, but that will most like change over the weekend as they should pick up one more win against a very average Oregon team. The Ducks knocked off Washington very late last night.

- Air Force and BYU both played their way straight to the NIT last night. It's sort of baffling how two bubble teams can come out so flat in must-win situations. The major conference bubble teams were happy with those results.

- Watch out for Vanderbilt tonight against LSU. If the Commodores can somehow pull that one out, they could wind up in the thick of the race for the last couple of spots.

- Maryland is currently just the third team out on our board, and a win today over BC could be enough to push them into the field. The Terps haven't had a Top-50 win since Dec. 11, when they beat BC at home.

- If Utah State has any shot at an at-large selection (which is a small one at best), they have to win today against a very good Louisiana Tech team, which if not for a few bad losses early in the year could be fighting for bid themeslves.

- A Minnesota win over Iowa today in the Big 10 quarterfinals would actually give the Gophers SIX Top-50 wins (UAB, Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan), and give hope to the Twin City faithful. Although they would most likely still need to win one more game and reach the finals to get a real look.

- There are some that have Mountain West regular season champion San Diego State in the field regardless of whether they win their tournament or not, and our numbers just don't support that assertion. We feel that the MWC is a one bid league this year now that Air Force blew any chance at an at-large last night.

- Does anyone in the Atlantic 10 want to go dancing? The top four seeds all lost yesterday, including 6th ranked George Washington.

- Houston gets their chance today against Memphis in what should be a very entertaining Conference USA game (if there is such a thing). A win and the Cougars have an excellent shot at an at-large berth in addition to a great shot at the C-USA tournament title.

- Colorado v. Texas A&M today should provide the committee with one Big 12 team to choose from for one of the last at-large bids. According to our numbers, the loser is definitely out, and the winner is still very close.

QUICK HITTER 2

What a day for hoops and it's still going strong!

Before we get to thoughts for the day here is the updated last teams in and out of the field as of 8:00pm CDT:

8 MEN IN: Arkansas, Kentucky, George Mason, Arizona, Cincinnati, Alabama, Seton Hall, UAB
8 MEN OUT: Michigan, California, Air Force, Houston, St. Joseph's, Maryland, Texas A&M, Colorado

- There is still no logical reason not to include all 6 Missouri Valley schools and all 3 Colonial schools in this tournament. They (other than George Mason, who still looks solid) are not even on the bubble board according to our numbers and I'm not about to put them on just because the other clown experts do.

- Florida State fell in the ACC first round to Wake Forest to pretty much clinch a bid to the NIT. They are still on the bubble board, but since they are finished and unable to help themselves any further, it just doesn't seem possible they could still make the field.

- Michigan pulled the same stunt in the Big 10 losing to (albeit a much tougher opponent than Wake) Minnesota. The Wolverines have slid all the way out of the bracket and are actually the first team out according to our projections. But, like the 'Noles, they are done playing and in a sea of teams that are still playing. So look for them to finish well out of the NCAA hunt.

- George Washington made a bunch of bubble friends today by losing in the A-10 quarters to Temple, guaranteeing the league at 2 bids and squeezing out a fence sitter.

- And how about Syracuse. Boeheim calls out the student newspaper and all of a sudden they go from out, to a virtual lock.

- I saw Colorado look very average in person against an upstart Baylor team who gave the Buffs all they wanted and more. The Bears had a 9 point lead with less than 10 minutes to go, but couldn't hold off the more experienced club. Colorado now faces Texas A&M tomorrow with the winner in good position for an NCAA bid, and the loser out.

- Arizona took care of business today in their Pac-10 opener against Stanford to basically seal the deal. Now California has to do the same thing tonight against USC, although even a win might not lock them in.

QUICK HITTER

- Upsets last night in the two championship games, with Monmouth rallying to defeat favorite Farleigh-Dickinson in the Northeast Conference Championship game, and Montana knocking off Big Sky regular season champ Northern Arizona in that leagues final game. Both these teams won on the road and deserve their trip to the Big Dance. Isn't this a great time of year!

- I will be out of the office all day today at the Big 12 Tournament in Dallas, and will not have access to our computer models for the bracket. I will be back later this evening and will update as much as I can tonight and then again in the morning.

- Just know that Louisville's loss knocked them out of any kind of bubble contention, and Seton Hall could certainly be in trouble after their loss to Rutgers in the Big East Tournament 1st Round.

SO MUCH CAN HAPPEN

- The Syracuse win over Cincinnati just goes to show you how much basketball we still have left to play before the pairings are released Sunday. Just consider for a moment that with one win, Syracuse improved: 1) RPI from 43 to 37, 2) Top-50 wins from 2 to 3, 3) road/neutral record from 45% to 50%, and 4) record over their last 10 games from 4/10 to 5/10.

- All of those factors considered have actually pushed the Orange back into the field over California according to our calculations, with Cincinnati still in but falling onto the bubble page (last 8 in) and bumping Seton Hall up to the solid page.

- Again, there is so much hoop left to play that who knows how the Big East will shake out. Seton Hall can still lose and fall back to the bubble while the Orange can lock a bid up with a win tomorrow. A loss and they're praying for a Cal 1st round loss to USC, and that the committee really sticks it to the mid-majors who deserve to go in favor of borderline teams from power leagues.

ISN'T THIS FUN!

IT BEGINS...

- The Big East Tournament begins today, with Syracuse and Cincinnati already going at it in what is without a doubt a make or break game for the Orange, who probably need this one and perhaps even one more to get in the field. Cincinnati should be fine regardless, but a loss would definitely put them in sweat it out mode come Sunday.

- Seton Hall doesn't want to mess around and tempt fate by losing to Rutgers in 1st Round.

- Louisville could start an at-large run by knocking off Pittsburgh.

- Oral Roberts (Mid-Continent), UW-Milwaukee (Horizon) and South Alabama (Sun Belt) punched their tickets last night, but didn't particularly effect the bracket. Western Kentucky, who lost to USA, has a fairly decent at-large resume, but will be NIT bound.

- Two more bids will be handed out tonight in one bid leagues, the Big Sky Conference (Northern Arizona v. Montana) and the Northeast Conference (Farleigh Dickinson v. Monmouth). The bracket will remain unaffected by these games.