THAT JOE LUNARDI IS A NO TALENT ASS-CLOWN

The University Presidents are No-Talent Ass Clowns Too

2006-11-13T11:32:00.000-08:00

Okay, so I've decided to simply pretend that the college football post season is run similarly to the college basketball post season, as it should be, and see what the glorious result would be. Here are the parameters:

1) There will be a 16 team playoff
2) Every Division 1-A conference champion gets an automatic bid (there are 11)
3) Five (5) at-large selections will round out the field (the BCS will be used like the RPI, as a guidance tool but not as the final say)
4) The first three rounds will be played at the home sites of the higher seeded team
5) The championship game and third place game will rotate among the Fiesta, Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls; the two bowls not in the rotation that year will select the next two games based on traditional tie-ins.
6) Four more bowls (to be determined) will be brought in to select the remaining eight teams according to traditional tie-ins.
7) Let's Begin!!

AUTOMATIC BIDS:

ACC: Wake Forest
Big 12: Texas
Big East: Rutgers
Big Ten: Ohio State
C-USA: Houston
MAC: Central Michigan
Mountain West: BYU
Pac Ten: USC
SEC: Arkansas
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
WAC: Boise State

LAST FIVE IN: Michigan, Florida, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Wisconsin
FIRST FIVE OUT: Louisville, LSU, Auburn, California, Oklahoma
NEXT FIVE OUT: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Tennessee

The Bracket (home teams in bold):

(1) Ohio State
(16) Mid. Tennessee

(8) West Virginia
(9) Wisconsin

(4) Florida
(13) BYU

(5) Notre Dame
(12) Wake Forest

(3) USC
(14) Houston

(6) Rutgers
(11) Texas

(7) Arkansas
(10) Boise State

(2) Michigan
(15) Central Michigan

BLOG TITLE CHANGE

2006-03-13T06:51:00.000-08:00

I think this blog's title should officially be changed to "THE MEN'S BASKETBALL SELECTION COMMITTEE IS A BUNCH OF NO TALENT ASS-CLOWNS"

- There is no way, just no way that Air Force belongs in this field. They had zero wins against the Top 50, three losses against teams outside the Top 100 (including their last game in the MWC quarters against Wyoming). They're overall strenth of schedule was 158, and they're non-conference strength of schedule was, wait for it, 273!!!! It makes you wonder what the committee members would score on the Wonderlic test doesn't it Vince?

- There are other questionable calls including Texas A&M who played nobody, and Alabama who won only three games away from home all year...THREE!!!! But Utah State has to be the team that people are scratching their heads wondering how. The Aggies did win 7 of their last 10 as well as 60% of their games away from home, but with a marginal RPI in a marginal league, it's surprising they beat out the likes of Cincinnati and Missouri State for a bid.

- Speaking of those snubbed teams, it's time for me to call out the selection committee for what it is...a bunch of hypocritical liars!

Lie #1) "We don't look at conferences" - BS! They absolutely look at conferences. Oh they may not actually say "The Big East can't get 9 teams in," but every one of them are thinking it. You know how I know? Because it is the absolute only reason Cincinnati could have been left out of this field in favor of Air Force. They were going to put the winner of the Big East tournament game between Syracuse and Cincinnati in, and that's what they did. Also, if Missouri State was in any other league they wouldn't have even been debated, but they weren't and they got screwed.

Lie #2) "Non-Conference scheduling matters" - 1/2 BS! This is 1/2 BS because while they seemed to have been targeting Florida State with this claim, they still allowed Texas A&M in with just as bad of a non-conference slate. Also, I already mentioned Air Force's non-conference SOS of 273...so why the inconsistency?

- Oh and as for the seeding, which is almost as bizzare as the selection, look no further than Tennessee, who we had as a #4 and actually bumped to a #5 for Kansas after Sunday's games. the Vols fell apart over the last three weeks and didn't get punished for it AT ALL. California as a #7 seed is way too high, as their numbers barely supported being included in the field at all!

- More seeding travesties are: Indiana - projected as a #10 and received a #6, Bradley - projected as a #8 and received a #13, indicating they along with #13 Air Force were the last two teams selected, Southern Illinois - projected as a #7 seed and received a #11.

- As for our projections, recall that while our numbers didn't support putting Texas A&M and Alabama in the field, we acknowledged that they would more than likely get bids. Air Force and Utah State are out of left field, and we don't feel the least bit bad about missing those insane selections.

Stay tuned for our tournament picks, Cinderella teams, and Final Four projections later in the week!

LAST MINUTE CHANGES!

2006-03-12T14:36:00.000-08:00

It's never too late to make a couple of last minute changes. Here they are:

Memphis: Congrats, you're now a 1-seed.
Ohio State: You sucked today. Down to two you go.

Boston College: You now be a three.
Pittsburgh: You now be a four.

Kansas: Nice win. Up to a four.
Tennessee: You sucked at the SEC. Down to five you go.

IT'S GO TIME!

2006-03-12T08:16:00.000-08:00

Wow, what a day of hoops yesterday! I basically watched all or part of every game, and I think the game of the day was the A-10 battle between St. Joes and Xavier. Nevada / Utah State was also fun to watch, and you couldn't help but enjoy watching North Carolina and Boston College. That was probably the most well-played game of the day.

Enough of the soft stuff though, let's get right down to it.

The 1s: Connecticut, Villanova, Duke, Ohio State
The 2s: Texas, Memphis, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 3s: Illinois, Iowa, UCLA, Pittsburgh
The 4s: Boston College, LSU, Tennessee, Florida
The 5s: George Washington, Michigan State, Kansas, Nevada
The 6s: Syracuse, Washington, West Virginia, Oklahoma
The 7s: Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
The 8s: Georgetown, UAB, Wisconsin, Bradley
The 9s: UNC Wilmington, Marquette, Arkansas, Bucknell
The 10s: Hofstra, Indiana, George Mason, Arizona
The 11s: NC State, Creighton, Cincinnati, Kentucky
The 12s: San Diego State, Seton Hall, Kent State, California
The 13s: Murray State, Wisc.-Milwaukee, Montana, South Alabama
The 14s: Iona, Northwestern State, Winthrop, Xavier
The 15s: Pacific, Davidson, Pennsylvania, Belmont
The 16s: Albany, Oral Roberts, Southern, Monmouth, Hampton

Last Four In: Cincinnati, NC State, Seton Hall, California
First Four Out: St. Joseph's, Alabama, Michigan, Texas A&M
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Maryland, Houston, Utah State

- Our numbers STILL do not have Texas A&M in, although in reality they probably will. But seriously folks, you have to look at who they've played and who they've beaten. The Aggies played absolutely one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country (#240) and for the most part bought their first 10 wins. And I'll say it again. They did not play a game out of College Station until JANUARY!!! And they lost that game @ Pacific. Texas A&M has one good win. That's it. This is also the same team that beat Baylor twice by a combined six points (and could have easily lost either one), needed overtime to beat lowly Iowa State, and lost to Kansas State. If it hadn't been for the late win over Texas, we wouldn't even be discussing this. So why is everyone so intent on calling it a lock? Let's keep the Aggies on the table for discussion.

- Another team that has been a lock for most of the year but now is in serious trouble is Alabama. The Tide are actually now the second team out according to our numbers, and if South Carolina should win today, it would almost certainly doom them to the NIT.

- California has now slipped into the field by virtue of Bama's fall and playing UCLA in an RPI booster loss. The Bears looked good at times yesterday, but were completely overmatched by a Bruin team who could make a serious run at the Final Four.

- If there was any doubt about UAB's resume, they played well enough against Memphis yesterday to erase those doubts. Remember that the C-USA tourney was in Memphis, so that was basically a road game for the Blazers.

- I'm going to say this right now. If Missouri State doesn't get into this field, then the RPI needs to either be modified, or just flat out abolished. There is no way a team in the top 20 of any ranking system should be doubted for a bid, and that's exactly what is happening. Of course, there is no way of knowing what the committee is thinking until we see the brackets, so maybe it's just all the experts being idiots.

- Continuing on this rant, can someone please tell me why a team like Florida State (who has now fallen completely off our bubble board) could even be considered for a bid over a team like Hofstra? Let's put their two resumes back to back.

Florida State: RPI: 62, Last Ten Games: 6-4, Record Away From Home: 6-7, Top 50 Ws: 2
Hofstra: RPI: 30, Last Ten Games: 8-2, Record Away From Home: 11-6, Top 50 Ws: 3

How is this even a discussion? Again maybe the only place a comparison like this is being debated is on the set of ESPN, and not in the committee room. I can only hope that's the case.

- The final five championship games will be decided today with the SEC championship between Florida and South Carolina the only one with bubble implications.

- That being said, the race for the final #1 seed is still very much alive between Ohio State, Texas and Memphis. The Tigers have done all they can, but if the Buckeyes win today, how can the regular season and tournament champ of the best league not be a #1 seed? I don't think that can happen. In fact, I think it would be a crime if that happened. If they lose however and Texas beats Kansas in the Big 12 championship, look for the Longhorns to stake claim to the final #1. Both teams losing should slide Memphis back into the position by default.

Today's games start in about 45 minutes, and the selection show is now just over 5 hours away. Enjoy the games and I'll have one more post before the show begins with our final projections. We'll also have more posts tomorrow discussing the selections, and then moving on to predicting our final four!

SELECTION EVE!

2006-03-11T10:20:00.000-08:00

Okay everybody, it's Selection Sunday Eve and things are winding down, although not really settling down. First, here is our latest field:

The 1s: Connecticut, Duke, Villanova, Ohio State
The 2s: Texas, North Carolina, Memphis, Illinois
The 3s: Gonzaga, Iowa, Pittsburgh, UCLA
The 4s: LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Boston College
The 5s: Michigan State, George Washington, Washington, West Virginia
The 6s: Kansas, Oklahoma, Nevada, Syracuse
The 7s: Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State
The 8s: Georgetown, UAB, Wisconsin, Marquette
The 9s: UNC Wilmington, Indiana, Bradley, Arkansas
The 10s: Hofstra, Arizona, Bucknell, George Mason
The 11s: N.C. State, Kentucky, Creighton, Cincinnati
The 12s: St. Joseph's, San Diego State, Alabama, Seton Hall
The 13s: Kent State, Murray State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Montana
The 14s: Iona, Northwestern State, South Alabama, Winthrop
The 15s: Pacific, Davidson, Pennsylvania, Belmont
The 16s: Delaware St., Albany, Oral Roberts, Southern, Monmouth

Last Four In: UAB, Alabama, N.C. State, Seton Hall
First Four Out: California, Michigan, Texas A&M, Maryland
Next Four Out: Houston, Utah State, Western Kentucky, Florida State

Notes:

- Obviously conventional wisdom is that Texas A&M is in already, and that's probably true, but their overall resume just doesn't support it. They have one Top-50 win (Texas) and an embarrasing non-conference schedule to go along with a poor record (4-7) away from home. Most likely the RPI bump the Aggies will get by playing Texas today will push them into the last slot.

- Another conventional wisdom pearl has California in, and again that's probably true. And much like A&M, the RPI bump the Bears will get today playing UCLA will push them in. But let's be real here, a mid-50s RPI team should never be a lock (Alabama fans should pay attention to that as well).

- It's also time to pull North Carolina State out of the lock column after losing four in a row and tumbling down into the high 40s in RPI.

- Memphis has finished off UAB to claim the Conference USA championship. It will be interesting to see what UAB's new numbers look like, although my guess is the Blazers will be fine.

- Albany is blowing out Vermont in the America East final, and will most likely go on to face one of the #1 seeds in next week's NCAA Tournament.

- Assuming that A&M and Cal are both in (although our numbers indicate otherwise), the big game of the day will be very late tonight when Utah State and Nevada hook up for the WAC Conference championship. The Wolfpack is definitely in the field and if Utah State were to win, a bubble team would be forced out.

- Most of the other games today are primarily for seeding purposes, and it will be interesting to see what Syracuse will finally rise to when all is said and done at Madison Square Garden.

Enjoy the games everyone!

CASUAL FRIDAY

2006-03-10T06:58:00.000-08:00

There's nothing casual about this Friday, as the big boys in the Big 12 and Big 10 finally get into action, and the Patriot League (Bucknell v. Holy Cross) crowns their champion in a game that all bubble teams will be watching feverishly.

EIGHT MEN IN: Creighton, George Mason, Arizona, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Alabama, UAB, Seton Hall

EIGHT MEN OUT: California, Michigan, Maryland, Houston, Texas A&M, Colorado, Western Kentucky, Florida State

Morning Notes:

- California took care of business against USC in the 1st round of the Pac-10 Tournament late last night, putting them in excellent position to get a bid. They are actually the first team out according to our numbers this morning, but that will most like change over the weekend as they should pick up one more win against a very average Oregon team. The Ducks knocked off Washington very late last night.

- Air Force and BYU both played their way straight to the NIT last night. It's sort of baffling how two bubble teams can come out so flat in must-win situations. The major conference bubble teams were happy with those results.

- Watch out for Vanderbilt tonight against LSU. If the Commodores can somehow pull that one out, they could wind up in the thick of the race for the last couple of spots.

- Maryland is currently just the third team out on our board, and a win today over BC could be enough to push them into the field. The Terps haven't had a Top-50 win since Dec. 11, when they beat BC at home.

- If Utah State has any shot at an at-large selection (which is a small one at best), they have to win today against a very good Louisiana Tech team, which if not for a few bad losses early in the year could be fighting for bid themeslves.

- A Minnesota win over Iowa today in the Big 10 quarterfinals would actually give the Gophers SIX Top-50 wins (UAB, Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan), and give hope to the Twin City faithful. Although they would most likely still need to win one more game and reach the finals to get a real look.

- There are some that have Mountain West regular season champion San Diego State in the field regardless of whether they win their tournament or not, and our numbers just don't support that assertion. We feel that the MWC is a one bid league this year now that Air Force blew any chance at an at-large last night.

- Does anyone in the Atlantic 10 want to go dancing? The top four seeds all lost yesterday, including 6th ranked George Washington.

- Houston gets their chance today against Memphis in what should be a very entertaining Conference USA game (if there is such a thing). A win and the Cougars have an excellent shot at an at-large berth in addition to a great shot at the C-USA tournament title.

- Colorado v. Texas A&M today should provide the committee with one Big 12 team to choose from for one of the last at-large bids. According to our numbers, the loser is definitely out, and the winner is still very close.

QUICK HITTER 2

2006-03-09T17:59:00.000-08:00

What a day for hoops and it's still going strong!

Before we get to thoughts for the day here is the updated last teams in and out of the field as of 8:00pm CDT:

8 MEN IN: Arkansas, Kentucky, George Mason, Arizona, Cincinnati, Alabama, Seton Hall, UAB
8 MEN OUT: Michigan, California, Air Force, Houston, St. Joseph's, Maryland, Texas A&M, Colorado

- There is still no logical reason not to include all 6 Missouri Valley schools and all 3 Colonial schools in this tournament. They (other than George Mason, who still looks solid) are not even on the bubble board according to our numbers and I'm not about to put them on just because the other clown experts do.

- Florida State fell in the ACC first round to Wake Forest to pretty much clinch a bid to the NIT. They are still on the bubble board, but since they are finished and unable to help themselves any further, it just doesn't seem possible they could still make the field.

- Michigan pulled the same stunt in the Big 10 losing to (albeit a much tougher opponent than Wake) Minnesota. The Wolverines have slid all the way out of the bracket and are actually the first team out according to our projections. But, like the 'Noles, they are done playing and in a sea of teams that are still playing. So look for them to finish well out of the NCAA hunt.

- George Washington made a bunch of bubble friends today by losing in the A-10 quarters to Temple, guaranteeing the league at 2 bids and squeezing out a fence sitter.

- And how about Syracuse. Boeheim calls out the student newspaper and all of a sudden they go from out, to a virtual lock.

- I saw Colorado look very average in person against an upstart Baylor team who gave the Buffs all they wanted and more. The Bears had a 9 point lead with less than 10 minutes to go, but couldn't hold off the more experienced club. Colorado now faces Texas A&M tomorrow with the winner in good position for an NCAA bid, and the loser out.

- Arizona took care of business today in their Pac-10 opener against Stanford to basically seal the deal. Now California has to do the same thing tonight against USC, although even a win might not lock them in.

QUICK HITTER

2006-03-09T10:24:00.000-08:00

- Upsets last night in the two championship games, with Monmouth rallying to defeat favorite Farleigh-Dickinson in the Northeast Conference Championship game, and Montana knocking off Big Sky regular season champ Northern Arizona in that leagues final game. Both these teams won on the road and deserve their trip to the Big Dance. Isn't this a great time of year!

- I will be out of the office all day today at the Big 12 Tournament in Dallas, and will not have access to our computer models for the bracket. I will be back later this evening and will update as much as I can tonight and then again in the morning.

- Just know that Louisville's loss knocked them out of any kind of bubble contention, and Seton Hall could certainly be in trouble after their loss to Rutgers in the Big East Tournament 1st Round.

SO MUCH CAN HAPPEN

2006-03-08T16:32:00.000-08:00

- The Syracuse win over Cincinnati just goes to show you how much basketball we still have left to play before the pairings are released Sunday. Just consider for a moment that with one win, Syracuse improved: 1) RPI from 43 to 37, 2) Top-50 wins from 2 to 3, 3) road/neutral record from 45% to 50%, and 4) record over their last 10 games from 4/10 to 5/10.

- All of those factors considered have actually pushed the Orange back into the field over California according to our calculations, with Cincinnati still in but falling onto the bubble page (last 8 in) and bumping Seton Hall up to the solid page.

- Again, there is so much hoop left to play that who knows how the Big East will shake out. Seton Hall can still lose and fall back to the bubble while the Orange can lock a bid up with a win tomorrow. A loss and they're praying for a Cal 1st round loss to USC, and that the committee really sticks it to the mid-majors who deserve to go in favor of borderline teams from power leagues.

ISN'T THIS FUN!

IT BEGINS...

2006-03-08T09:19:00.000-08:00

- The Big East Tournament begins today, with Syracuse and Cincinnati already going at it in what is without a doubt a make or break game for the Orange, who probably need this one and perhaps even one more to get in the field. Cincinnati should be fine regardless, but a loss would definitely put them in sweat it out mode come Sunday.

- Seton Hall doesn't want to mess around and tempt fate by losing to Rutgers in 1st Round.

- Louisville could start an at-large run by knocking off Pittsburgh.

- Oral Roberts (Mid-Continent), UW-Milwaukee (Horizon) and South Alabama (Sun Belt) punched their tickets last night, but didn't particularly effect the bracket. Western Kentucky, who lost to USA, has a fairly decent at-large resume, but will be NIT bound.

- Two more bids will be handed out tonight in one bid leagues, the Big Sky Conference (Northern Arizona v. Montana) and the Northeast Conference (Farleigh Dickinson v. Monmouth). The bracket will remain unaffected by these games.

SERIOUSLY GONZAGA

2006-03-07T07:13:00.000-08:00

Can you say Hampton?! If any potential #2/#3 (if you think they're up for a #1 seed just leave this site now and go back to your work at the Spokane Kool-Aid factory) seed looked ripe for a major first round upset, it's Gonzaga. They play zero defense, and for a Top 5 team sure did struggle against a bunch of teams at home that won't even be considered for the NIT. Hopefully they won't get every call in the Big Dance like they did all year in the WCC.

It's a good thing Hofstra battled back against UNC-Wilmington last night in the Colonial Athletic Association title game, because a blowout loss could have been just enough of an excuse for the selection committee to leave them out come Sunday. They did come back, however, and our numbers point to the Pride being solidly in the field (as a #9 seed in fact).

Now, for the updated bubble watch as of Tuesday morning:

Last Eight In: Seton Hall, Alabama, George Mason*, Kentucky, Michigan, Arizona, UAB, California

Eight Men Out: Syracuse, Florida State, Air Force, Houston, Maryland, Texas A&M, Colorado, BYU

*Our formula obviously doesn't take into account something like the suspension of a star player, as in the case of George Mason's Tony Shinn. So while the Patriot's resume should be enough to get in on merit, the loss of such a major contributor could damage the chances at a bid.

- There's no doubt that a first round exit from the Pac-10 Tournament could doom both Arizona and California. On the flip side, get past that one and both should be fine come Selection Sunday.

- Our numbers still show all six Missouri Valley teams, and all three Colonial teams in the field with some room to spare, but Championship Week can close that gap in a hurry since the power conferences all have several potential big games on the slate.

- Perfect example is in the Big 12, where only one of either A&M or Colorado can reach the semi-finals of the conference tournament. If the Buffs take care of Baylor and knock off A&M, look for them come Selection Sunday instead of the Aggies. If A&M takes care of either Baylor or Colorado, that should be enough to get them in. If the upstart Bears win two games, however, chalk up the Big 12 for a whopping 3 bids!

- Another league with room for some movement is the ACC, where Florida State probably will get in with just one more win against Wake Forest in the 1st round of the conference tournament. Maryland is also a team who with two more wins would be right on the cusp of a bid.

- And while Syracuse looks absolutely dead in the water right now, who knows what can happen in Madison Square Garden? And if the Orange were to knock off Cincinnati in the 1st round of the Big East tournament , they could be right back in the picture.

- Poor, poor, Air Force. Wish we could help you out. Unfortunately you're probably going to have to win your conference tournament, or at the very least get to the final to have a chance at the Big Dance.

HOLD YOUR HORSES SEMINOLE FANS

2006-03-06T14:43:00.000-08:00

- Yes Florida State is in good positition but it still has work left to do. So let's not all jump on this bandwagon talking about how great they are because they won at Miami.

- The Last four in as of Monday are: Michigan, Arizona, UAB, California

- The first four out as of Monday are: Syracuse, Florida State, Air Force, Houston

- Out still are: Texas A&M*, Colorado*, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Utah State, BYU

- In still are: Hofstra, Bradley, Creighton, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Indiana, Seton Hall

- Should be a great game tonight between UNC-Wilmington and Hofstra for the Colonial title, although all three teams (George Mason) should get in regardless of the outcome.

*Keep in mind that Texas A&M and Colorado have a chance to play each other in the Big 12 Quarterfinals; the winner of which very likely would get the bid.

I LIKE LOCKS!

2006-03-05T07:48:00.000-08:00

Like Bradley.

Thanks for making us look smart, fellas. Sorry that as of Saturday some of the circus clowns still have not noticed. Oh well, we think it will be hard for them to keep you out of the tournament if you receive the automatic bid. Although, in order to preserve what little dignity they have left, we are sure they might try.

CASUAL FRIDAY

2006-03-03T12:27:00.000-08:00

Okay here is the field as of Friday, March 2nd:

(Automatic Bids / Conference Leaders in bold)

The 1s - Connecticut, Villanova, Duke, Memphis
The 2s - Ohio State, Illinois, Texas, Gonzaga
The 3s - Pittsburgh, Tennessee, LSU, North Carolina
The 4s - Iowa, West Virginia, UCLA, Michigan State
The 5s - George Washington, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Washington
The 6s - Boston College, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Florida
The 7s - Kansas, N.C. State, Nevada, Marquette
The 8s - Missouri State, George Mason, Northern Iowa, Alabama
The 9s - Creighton, Kentucky, Arkansas, Bucknell
The 10s - Michigan, Southern Illinois, UNC-Wilmington, Arizona
The 11s - UAB, Hofstra, Bradley, Cincinnati
The 12s - Indiana, Syracuse, San Diego State, Western Kentucky
The 13s - Seton Hall, Wisc.-Milwaukee, Kent State, Northwestern State
The 14s - Winthrop, Murray State, Manhattan, Pacific
The 15s - Penn, Northern Arizona, Delaware State, Albany
The 16s - Farleigh-Dickinson, Georgia Southern, Lipscomb, Southern, IUPUI

Conference Breakdown:

Big East - 9
Big Ten - 7
SEC - 6
Missouri Valley - 6
ACC - 4
Big 12 - 3
Pac 10 - 3
Colonial - 3
C-USA - 2
One Bid Conferences - 22

Last Four In: UNC-Wilmington, Seton Hall, Syracuse, UAB
First Four Out: California, Houston, Vanderbilt, Colorado
Next Four Out: Old Dominion, Air Force, BYU, Utah State

Notes:

- Interesting that Memphis' loss to UAB actually didn't hurt their numbers when you consider that their previous win over the Blazers now gets counted as a Top 50 win. However, our seeding formula takes voting polls into account, which obviously won't reflect the loss until Monday. Therefore don't expect to see them on the 1 line next week.

- Everyone needs to relax on Texas A&M and Florida State. Yes they each had gigantic wins this week. And while many experts have them in their bracket now, the numbers simply don't justify that. Both teams are definitely back in the picture and have positioned themselves for a run at the field over the next week, but both have work left to do.

- UAB finally does break into our bracket after the big win over Memphis. However they are the last team in according to the numbers, and games against mediocre C-USA foes over the next week won't help their RPI.

- Syracuse almost fell all the way out of the bracket after their latest debacle at DePaul. And while all three bubble Big East teams (Orange, Cinci and Seton Hall) are still in the field as of today, my guess is that at least one will play their way out before all is said and done.

- Arizona has finally fallen onto our bubble page and while they are as near to a lock as a bubble team can be, tney can't afford any disasters over the next week or Selection Sunday could be a nervous one for the 'Cats.

AV

WEDNESDAY WHISPERS

2006-03-01T07:18:00.000-08:00

- March Madness has officially begun with the Big South Conference Tournament in full swing. Too bad first place Winthrop had to play RPI #317 Liberty in the first round. Win by 40 and drop 10+ spots in the RPI...makes you wonder what we're all doing here doesn't it?

- Seton Hall's victory over Cincinnati last night pushed P.J. Carlisemo's (he's still the coach right) club into the field as of today, while Bob Huggin's (he's still the coach right?) Bearcats fell from being solidly in the field to one of the last teams in.

- If one team goes in, another has to come out, and for right now that team is Colorado. The Buffs still probably need at least two, maybe three more wins if they're going to get in. Although if they could get the one tonight in Lawrence that would clinch it.

- Don't look now but the Louisville Cardinals have re-appeared on our bubble board for the first time in a couple of weeks, and with games this week against Marquette and @UCONN they are in position to get themselves back onto the bubble heading into the Big East Tournament.

Other Games to Watch Tonight:

Duke @ Florida State - Doesn't it seem like this is the situation every year?

Kentucky @ Tennessee - The Vols showed they were beatable at home over the weekend and the 'Cats are needing another victory to ensure inclusion in the field.

Texas @ Texas A%M - Okay Aggies, here's your chance...don't blow it.

Indiana @ Purdue - Don't watch this one. Just check the score in the morning and see if the Hoosiers won a game on the road.

Virginia @ North Carolina - The Cavaliers are another team who are one big road win, like this one, away from being squarely on the bubble.

Texas Tech @ Baylor - With Missouri's loss at Iowa State last night the Bears have a chance to climb out of the Big 12 cellar for the first time since CSI: Waco. Now that's good television!

Game Not To Watch Tonight:

Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan - These MAC teams have three conference wins between them, and had their bubbles burst about the time you were sitting down for Thanksgiving turkey.

BIG MONDAY IS COOL IN SPECTACULAR HDTV

2006-02-27T17:33:00.000-08:00

Okay folks, here it is as of Monday, Feb. 27th.

Last 4 In: Syracuse, Kentucky, California, Colorado
First 4 Out: Houston, Seton Hall, Old Dominion, Vanderbilt
Next 4 Out: Air Force, Utah State, Maryland, BYU

Some Notes:

-Our computer just doesn't see how Air Force gets in without a Top-50 win, and it's going to be tough to come by the rest of the way.

-Conference USA is still getting way too much credit from most experts who have UAB in the field. While they are on our bubble board of 24, they haven't made a real serious push by our numbers.

-Conference USA is still getting way too much credit from experts in regards to Memphis, who have now slipped to a #2 seed in our latest projections. This was bound to happen as the Big 10 is simply too strong to not have a team as a #1 seed. It was just a matter of time before someone stepped up, and as of now that is the Buckeyes of Ohio State.

-Texas A&M appeared on our bubble board of 24 for the first time today, and our math shows a win over Texas at home this week would put them right on the edge of getting in.

-Oh yea, and Bradley's still in easily.

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Philadelphia
1 Connecticut vs. 16 Southern/Farleigh-Dickinson
8 Creighton vs. 9 Bucknell

San Diego
4 Michigan State vs. 13 Western Kentucky
5 Oklahoma vs. 12 Kentucky

Jacksonville
6 Wichita State vs. 11 Cincinnati
3 North Carolina vs. 14 Pacific

Greensboro
7 Nevada vs. 10 UNC-Wilmington
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Pennsylvania

ATLANTA

Greensboro
1 Duke vs. 16 Lipscomb
8 Marquette vs. 9 Alabama

Salt Lake
4 George Washington vs. 13 Wisc.-Milwaukee
5 Washington vs. 12 Indiana

Dayton
6 North Carolina State vs. 11 California
3 Pittsburgh vs. 14 Manhattan

Auburn Hills
7 Kansas vs. 10 Southern Illinois
2 Illinois vs. 15 Northern Arizona

MINNEAPOLIS

Philadelphia
1 Villanova vs. 16 IUPUI
8 Northern Iowa vs. 9 Arkansas

Auburn Hills
4 Iowa vs. 13 Northwestern State
5 Boston College vs. 12 San Diego State

Jacksonville
6 Georgetown vs. 11 Hofstra
3 LSU vs. 14 Murray State

Dallas
7 Missouri State vs. 10 Michigan
2 Texas vs. 15 Delaware State

OAKLAND

Dayton
1 Ohio State vs. 16 Georgia Southern
8 George Mason vs. 9 Bradley

San Diego
4 UCLA vs. 13 Kent State
5 West Virginia vs. 12 Colorado

Salt Lake
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Syracuse
3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Winthrop

Dallas
7 Florida vs. 10 Arizona
2 Memphis vs. 15 Albany

ESPN's DESCRIPTORS (I.E. JUDGEMENT WEEK) ARE DUMB AND MAKE ME FEEL AWKWARD

2006-02-24T13:35:00.000-08:00

Now that I've got that off my chest, we can move on to more important things, like why experts and media have such a high opinion of Boston College.

Seriously, has anyone really looked hard at their resume? We have, and it's not at all impressive. Certainly not as impressive as their top 15 poll ranking would indicate.

In fact, here's a quick pop quiz. The following are resumes of three teams, one of which is BC. You tell us which one you think, the answer key is at the bottom of this post.

- RPI- Conf. RPI- Good Ws- Bad Ls- L10- Road W%- DPI

A) 38- 0.5197- 2-2- 0.9- 0.64- 1.69
B) 39- 0.5793- 1- 1- 0.8- 0.69- 1.19
C) 37- 0.5765- 1- 0- 0.7- 0.62- 1.10

So let's all just take a deep breath and really study these teams, and not take the AP and Coach's polls word for it.

So here is the bracket for Friday, February 24th, and some notes to go along with it.

Last Four In: Kentucky, Seton Hall, California, Syracuse
First Four Out: Houston, Colorado, Utah State, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Temple, Minnesota, BYU, Florida State

THE FIELD

ATLANTA
Greensboro
1 Duke 16 Southern/Lipscomb
8 Marquette 9 Bradley
San Diego
4 George Washington 13 Arkansas
5 Wisconsin 12 Seton Hall
Jacksonville
6 Washington 11 Kentucky
3 Pittsburgh 14 Pennsylvania
Dayton
7 Wichita State 10 UNC-Wilmington
2 Ohio State 15 Pacific

Washinton, D.C.
Philadelphia
1Connecticut 16 Georgia Southern
8 Bucknell 9 Missouri State
Salt Lake
4 North Carolina State 13 Wisc.-Milwaukee
5 LSU 12 Indiana
Auburn Hills
6 Oklahoma 11Southern Illinois
3 Iowa 14 Manhattan
Jacksonville
7 George Mason 10 Cincinnati
2 Tennesse 15 Northern Arizona

Minneapolis
Philadelphia
1 Villanova 16 Farleigh-Dickinson
8 Nevada 9 Arizona
Greensboro
4 North Carolina 13 Northwestern State
5 Florida 12 San Diego State
Auburn Hills
6 Boston College 11 California
3 Michigan State 14 Winthrop
Dallas
7 Georgetown 10 Hofstra
2 Texas 15 Delaware State

Oakland
Dallas
1 Memphis 16 Albany
8 Creighton 9 Michigan
San Diego
4 UCLA 13 Murray State
5 West Virginia 12 Western Kentucky
Salt Lake
6 Northern Iowa 11 Syracuse
3 Gonzaga 14 Kent State
Dayton
7 Kansas 10 Alabama
2 Illinois 15 IUPUI

Answer Key From Pop Quiz Above: A) Hofstra, B) Boston College, C) Kentucky

BREAKING YOUR BRACKET DOWN LIKE A TIM HARDAWAY CROSSOVER

2006-02-20T21:14:00.000-08:00

Raise your hands if Gregg Doyel thinks you are silly. Well, Mr. Doyel says we’re silly because we have six MVC teams in the dance. He may think we are silly; but, we think it’s highly likely he pees sitting down. No worries, though, because it’s all so simple when you look at the numbers. And, the numbers say six Missouri Valley teams deserve to be in the dance. In fact, when we plug in the numbers, the MVC teams do not even fall within our 24 teams vying for the final eight spots. We dare you to tell us otherwise (but, seriously, if you have an argument why we should not, let us know).

Mr. Gregg “No Talent Ass-Clown” Doyel seems to have more on his side than we do; however, because even Jay Bilas (he of the worldwide leader*) thinks the MVC is getting too much credit. Then again, maybe Doyel and Bilas are in cahoots together in order to mount an assault on those of us courageous enough to challenge the mighty.

We do agree with Mr. Doyel on one point; however, which is the fact the Big 12 Conference really needs to stop sucking, and soon. Although, recent history seems to point to the fact the Big XII will continue to suck.

At any rate, here is the latest bracket breakdown and a quick breakdown of what’s on this post. First, the 24 teams vying for the eight spots. Second, who is in and who is out from last week. Third, the conference breakdown. Fourth; and, finally, the field by seeds.

The projection of the actual pairings will be up on Tuesday. We promise.

THE VIDEO IPODS
Michigan – (31, 0.5889, 2, 1, 0.6, 0.45) - 1.77
Indiana – (44, 0.5889, 4, 2, 0.3, 0.42) - 1.62
UNC-Wilmington – (37, 0.5197, 2, 2, 0.8, 0.54) - 1.50
Kentucky – (39, 0.5765, 1, 0, 0.7, 0.62) - 1.19
Syracuse – (32, 0.5834, 1, 0, 0.4, 0.56) - 0.86
Colorado – (47, 0.5606, 2, 1, 0.7, 0.44) - 0.79
Houston – (55, 0.5002, 2, 2, 0.9, 0.64) - 0.65
Arkansas – (57, 0.5765, 3, 2, 0.6, 0.36) - 0.45

THE PORTABLE CD PLAYERS
California – (65, 0.5498, 3, 3, 0.7, 0.63) - 0.40
South Carolina – (58, 0.5765, 3, 1, 0.5, 0.36) - 0.34
Hofstra – (46, 0.5197, 1, 2, 0.8, 0.62) - 0.29
Old Dominion – (52, 0.5197, 2, 2, 0.6, 0.46) - -0.06
Temple – (63, 0.5191, 3, 1, 0.6, 0.33) - -0.10
Vanderbilt – (61, 0.5765, 3, 1, 0.3, 0.44) - -0.11
Maryland – (45, 0.5793, 1, 0.5, 0.29) - -0.37
Minnesota – (64, 0.5889, 3, 2, 0.4, 0.25) - -0.60

THE EIGHT TRACK CASSETTES
Utah State – (50, 0.5226, 1, 5, 0.8, 0.55) - -0.59
UAB – (53, 0.5002, 0, 0, 0.8, 0.60) - -0.75
BYU – (56, 0.528, 1, 2, 0.7, 0.50) - -0.77
Air Force – (49, 0.528, 0, 2, 0.7, 0.58) - -0.93
Xavier – (75, 0.5191, 2, 0, 0.5, 0.56) - -1.25
Iowa State – (76, 0.5606, 3, 3, 0.3, 0.55) - -1.28
Miami – (73, 0.5793, 2, 0, 0.4, 0.38) - -1.41
Louisiana Tech – (62, 0.5226, 1, 3, 0.6, 0.50) - -1.56

<>SAY HELLO TO: Arkansas, Colorado and Houston
SAY GOODBYE TO: California, Iowa State and Vanderbilt

THE CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (9), Big 10 (7), MVC (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), Big 12 (4), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), C-USA (2)

THE FIELD
25+ POINT 1ST ROUND FAVORITES: Connecticut, Duke, Villanova, Memphis
TWOS: Iowa, Illinois, Michigan St., Texas
THREES: Gonzaga, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
FOURS: Florida, UCLA, George Washington, West Virginia
GEORGE BRETT (NO. 5): N.C. State, Northern Iowa, North Carolina, LSU
SIXES: Boston College, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Wisconsin
MICKEY MANTLE (NO. 7): Washington, Wichita State, Kansas, George Mason
EIGHTS: Marquette, Michigan, Bucknell, Creighton
NINES: Southern Illinois, Arizona, Nevada, Alabama
TENS: UNC-Wilmington, Indiana, Cincinnati, Missouri St.
ELEVENS: Seton Hall, Kentucky, Western Kentucky, Bradley
THE RICKY WILLIAMS SUSPENSION (IN MONTHS): San Diego State, Houston, Syracuse, Colorado
THE LUCKY NUMBER: Iona, Arkansas, Wisc.-Milwaukee, Murray State
FOURTEENS: Northern Arizona, Kent State, Winthrop, Northwestern State
PULLIN’ A HAMPTON: Penn, Pacific, Farleigh-Dickinson, IUPUI
DON’T BET ON IT: Georgia Southern, Southern, Albany, Delaware St.

* not really the worldwide leader in anything (except maybe lazy-eyed sports anchors). BOOYAH!

HOT BIG 12 BUBBLE ACTION!

2006-02-16T15:51:00.000-08:00

For those of you who watched a bunch of people playing in the snow last night, a pair of key Big 12 Conference games took place that likely determined which teams in the league would be dancing. With Colorado and Iowa State in a fight to the death to see who will become the fourth Big 12 team to make the field and grab one of those highly coveted 12-seeds, both teams played games last night and both needed wins. To put it lightly, if you are a Colorado fan, aside from Jeremy Bloom, you are sitting pretty after last night.

COLORADO 84, OKLAHOMA 75
In short, the Sooner Schooner did what it usually does when it travels north to face a Big 12 school: it lost the trail, ran out of food and eventually died of dysentery. The Sooners loss is the Buffaloes gain; however, as Colorado likely needed one big win to put themselves in position to gain an invitation and now the committee would be sending one their way if the selection process took place to day.

Enough about the game; however, because the most disturbing thing that occurred last night was the fact the Colorado fans felt the need to rush the court. Now, I know this is a blog about who might make the tournament; but, this is clearly an issue that needs to be investigated and addressed immediately. As far as this blog is concerned, there are only three instances where fans of a power conference school are allowed to rush the court.

1. J.J. Reddick is standing at mid-court, all by himself and with nowhere to go. In this instance, not only is rushing the court endorsed, it’s also highly encouraged. Of course, once you are there, feel free to administer a beat down.

2. Free burritos.

3. Teammate kills other teammate. Coach lies. Coach gets caught in lie. NCAA investigation ensues. Coach quits. Entire team transfers. Former team members thrive in new environments. Team left with as many scholarships as local YMCA team. Team hires new coach. Realizing it is bad, real bad, team levels heavy sanction onto itself. NCAA concludes investigation. NCAA levels more sanctions: including the often used, often duplicated, “cancel half the season to make the life of coaches, players and fans who had nothing to do with the whole sordid episode even worse” technique. Player who killed other player pleads guilty. New team, two seasons removed, opens play in January. Team, now 381 days removed from last victory, gets last-second, overtime victory.

So there it is, written out for the world to see: the three scenarios where the fans of a power conference school can rush the court. Granted, No. 3 isn’t very likely to happen (Sic ‘Em), so fans might just want to stick to rules one and two when determining whether or not a court-storming is necessary.

NEBRASKA 73, IOWA STATE 63
If I had a fork and a bubble with an Iowa State logo, I would have popped it violently at the end of that horrendous performance. That was one pathetic display out there last night by the Cyclones as the “Hilton Magic” continues for road teams. To be honest, I’m pretty sure the Cyclones could have rolled five trained, circus monkeys out there and had a better shot of winning last night’s game. At the very least, the stuff (aka No. 2) the monkeys would have tossed around out there would not have stunk up the joint as much as the performance Curtis Stinson and company put on last night.

Well, Cyclone fans, at least you have wrestling. Oh, and Ames. Have fun.

LUNARDI IS A NO TALENT ASS CLOWN TEAM OF THE WEEK

2006-02-14T14:36:00.000-08:00

Congratulations, Missouri State, you are the first “Lunardi is A No Talent Ass Clown” Team of the Week! Feel free to put the honor in your notes section for the game against Evansville this weekend.

We feel for you here. The computers love you, you won at Northern Iowa last weekend, you stand just outside the national polls and you have a winning record on the road. Yet, for some reason, Mr. Lunardi shows you no love (although the 2-5 record against top 50 might have something to do with it).

However, on this day of love, we are here to spread a little your direction. If you poor saps replaced Missouri in the Big 12 (a decision we would be all for, by the way) there would be no question as to whether or not Lunardi finds you tournament worthy. Instead, he places teams like Colorado ahead of you, which we find to be sad and equally pathetic.

At any rate, no worries, keep taking care of business and you will be sure to find your way into the field of 65.

OTHER TEAMS LUNARDI IS WAY OFF BASE WITH
VANDERBILT
The Commodores most likely need to get to .500 in the SEC to warrant a bid, but they have three quality wins (at Georgetown, Kentucky, at Kentucky) and their last three losses (at Alabama, Georgia, at Tennessee) were by a
combined 11 points, with one (Alabama) in overtime. They still have Florida, Tennessee and LSU at home as well as winnable road games against Georgia and South Carolina. There is no doubt Vanderbilt can play their way in or out of the tournament over the next three weeks.

SOUTH CAROLINA
With four of its remaining six games at home to finish the regular season, and the two road games against teams outside the top 100, the Gamecocks are in position to make a run. USC has a respectable RPI of 52, which should climb into the 40’s assuming wins in five or six of the remaining games.

AND THE TEAM LUNARDI IS CONSIDERING, YET NOBODY ELSE SHOULD BE
STANFORD
The Cardinal missed a golden opportunity last week with close losses at California and Gonzaga. Their RPI rating of 76 is going to be tough to move playing in the relatively weak Pac-10. Combine that with their lack of top 50 wins (1) and bad losses (4), and the Cardinal will be making reservations for New York soon (that is if they can even win enough games to get there).

THE BRACKET BREAKDOWN

2006-02-14T13:48:00.000-08:00

For all of you with some time to kill and a chance to make your head spin, here is the breakdown by the numbers. Right now, the MVC has six teams in our projected bracket. Although we will concede the chances of the MVC receiving six bids is about as likely as this, by looking at the numbers, you really have no choice but to put six teams in right now. I mean, if the MVC were called the Big 10, would there be any doubt as to whether or not five or six teams get in. We’re guessing the whole thing will work itself out as Bradley will fall off the face of the Earth with Missouri State rising to the occasion.

Last four in: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Iowa State, UNC-Wilmington
First four out: Houston, Old Dominion, South Carolina, Colorado
Next four out: Hofstra, Maryland, Temple, UAB

The conference breakdown:
Big East (8), Big 10 (7), SEC (6), MVC (6), ACC (4), Big 12 (4), Pac-10 (4) Colonial (2)

And as for that grading system we talked about earlier, here is how that breaks down as well and how we filled out the final eight teams in the bracket. Remember, the grades assessed are a +/- comparison of a particular team against the other 23 teams vying for the eight available spots.

TEAM – (RPI, Conference RPI, Good Wins, Bad Losses, Last 10, Road Winning Pct.) – Grade

GOING TO THE PARTY
Alabama – (42, 0.5787, 2, 1, 0.7, 0.43) - 1.52
Bradley – (62, 0.5561, 4, 3, 0.6, 0.33) - 1.18
Cincinnati – (32, 0.5001, 2, 1, 0.3, 0.40) - 0.87
California – (55, 0.5513, 2, 3, 0.7, 0.63) - 0.69
Vanderbilt – (58, 0.5787, 3, 1, 0.4, 0.38) – 0.62
Kentucky – (44, 0.5787, 1, 0, 0.5, 0.58) - 0.57
Iowa State – (63, 0.5618, 3, 2, 0.4, 0.60) - 0.56
UNC-Wilmington – (45, 0.5174, 1, 2, 0.8, 0.54) - 0.47

THE SOUND OF THE TINY AIR MASS YOU HEAR IS YOUR BUBBLE BURSTING
Houston – (59, 0.5001, 2, 2, 0.7, 0.64) - 0.38
Old Dominion – (51, 0.5174, 2, 2, 0.6, 0.46) - 0.37
South Carolina – (52, 0.5787, 2, 1, 0.4, 0.36) - 0.10
Colorado – (49, 0.5618, 1, 1, 0.6, 0.50) - 0.06
Hofstra – (54, 0.5174, 1, 2, 0.8, 0.60) - 0.03
Maryland – (41, 0.5805, 1, 0, 0.4, 0.33) - 0.01
Temple – (57, 0.5201, 2, 3, 0.7, 0.36) - -0.14
UAB – (48, 0.5001, 0, 1, 0.8, 0.56) - -0.49

THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF SEATS AVAILABLE AT MADISON SQUARE GARDEN
Arkansas – (66, 0.5787, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.40) - -0.50
Minnesota – (72, 0.5894, 3, 2, 0.3, 0.29) - -0.78
Utah State – (53, 0.5167, 1, 5, 0.7, 0.50) - -0.79
Xavier – (74, 0.5201, 2, 0, 0.5, 0.56) - -0.79
Miami – (82, 0.5805, 2, 0, 0.6, 0.50) - -0.93
Air Force – (46, 0.5296, 0, 2, 0.6, 0.50) - -0.93
BYU – (61, 0.5296, 1, 3, 0.7, 0.45) - -1.03
Virginia – (56, 0.5805, 1, 2, 0.6, 0.22) - -1.05

NCAA BRACKET PROJECTION - 2/12/05

2006-02-14T11:40:00.000-08:00

OK folks, here is the first bracket projection on what is sure to become a historic blog. More on the reasoning later on Tuesday; but, for now, here are the teams we have in the field, their seeds and where they are playing. Because we go all out, unlike some experts we know.

NCAA BRACKET PROJECTION – Through games of Feb. 12, 2006

ATLANTA REGIONAL
(1) Duke vs. (16) Southern – Greensboro, N. Car.
(8) George Mason vs. (9) Seton Hall – Greensboro, N. Car.
(4) Florida vs. (13) Iona – Jacksonville, Fla.
(5) Northern Iowa vs. (12) San Diego State – Jacksonville, Fla.
(6) Oklahoma vs. (11) Wisc.-Milwaukee – Greensboro, N. Car.
(3) Pittsburgh vs. (14) Kent State – Greensboro, N. Car.
(7) Washington vs. (10) Nevada – Auburn Hills, Mich.
(2) Iowa vs. (15) Northern Arizona – Auburn Hills, Mich.

MINNEAPOLIS REGIONAL
(1) Memphis vs. (16) Farleigh-Dickinson – Dallas, Texas
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Syracuse – Dallas, Texas
(4) Michigan State vs. (13) Murray State – Salt Lake City, Utah
(5) Georgetown vs. (12) Kentucky – Salt Lake City, Utah
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) UNC-Wilmington – Jacksonville, Fla.
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) Winthrop – Jacksonville, Fla.
(7) Kansas vs. (10) Southern Illinois – Dayton, Ohio
(2) West Virginia vs. (15) Delaware State – Dayton, Ohio

OAKLAND REGIONAL
(1) Villanova vs. (16) IUPUI – Philadelphia, Penn.
(8) Missouri State vs. (9) Michigan – Philadelphia, Penn.
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Iowa State – San Diego, Calif.
(5) LSU vs. (12) Western Kentucky – San Diego, Calif.
(6) North Carolina vs. (11) Marquette – Auburn Hills, Mich.
(3) Illinois vs. (14) Northwestern State – Auburn Hills, Mich.
(7) Wichita State vs. (10) California – Dallas, Texas
(2) Texas vs. (15) Albany – Dallas, Texas

WASHINGTON, D.C. REGIONAL
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Lipscomb/Georgia Southern – Philadelphia, Penn.
(8) Bucknell vs. (9) Indiana – Philadelphia, Penn.
(4) George Washington vs. (13) Bradley – San Diego, Calif.
(5) North Carolina State vs. (12) Vanderbilt – San Diego, Calif.
(6) Boston College vs. (11) Alabama – Salt Lake City, Utah
(3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Pacific – Salt Lake City, Utah
(7) Arizona vs. (10) Cincinnnati – Dayton, Ohio
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Pennsylvania – Dayton, Ohio

TEAMS LEADING THEIR RESPECTIVE CONFERENCES IN BOLD

THE SIMPLE MATH

2006-02-13T14:17:00.000-08:00

Now that we have officially put you on notice, it’s time to let you clowns know how we do things around here. It’s a simple system, really, so here are some things you have to keep in mind when taking a look at the projected brackets we will post each Monday:

1) In the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship, there are 31 automatic bids. In our bracket, much like your lame bracket projection, those 31 spots will go to the current leader of each conference. Although we may think teams like Nevada will eventually fall out of the conference lead and not make the tournament (since Nick Fezekas should go do you know what to himself), we give them their due for holding the conference lead at that particular point. After all, and as the ladies would agree, we’re nice like that.

2) 65-31=34. Simple math I know; but, we’re pretty sure some of you could screw that up. What’s the 34? Well, it’s the number of at-large bids available to the teams not cool enough to win their conference; but, still get invited to this invitation-only affair. Each Monday, we will say who belongs; and, sadly, discuss who doesn’t.

Now that we have the basic math out of the way, it’s time to discuss how we pick the 34 at-large teams.

First off, we identify the tournament locks (for example, the group of hillbillies out yonder) and place them into the field. Once we do this, it leaves about eight spots open for a spot in the tournament. We take the non-locks (around 24 teams) and place them into a “bubble pool” in which they get graded on their overall numbers. We input the numbers into our fancy equation which spits grades out in a fancy top-to-bottom order. The top eight teams get into the tournament, the other 16 are left pondering about a party nobody wants to attend.

Now, we might be going over some of your heads here; but, the equation we use involves giving certain categories more weight and other categories less weight as each team is compared against one another in each particular category. The categories we look at for each team are as follows:

RPI
Conference RPI
Quality wins (wins versus the top 50)
Bad losses (losses outside the top 100)
Last 10 games
Road/Neutral site record

After considering the following six categories, the fine product Bill Gates gave us tells us which eight teams rank the highest and we place them into our field of 65.

Once we have our field of 65, we seed the field. We seed the field using the fancy equation as well, except we add three factors:

A team's rank within its conference
AP poll
Coaches' poll

Once this is done, we follow all the rules of bracketing as stated by the insane governing body and complete our projection.

After posting the projected field each Monday, we will highlight key games during the week and provide our analysis as how it affects each team in the projected bracket. By doing so, we hope it gives everyone a better idea as to why a group of bitter, powerful white men might shatter your dreams on March 12, 2006.

EXPERTS: YOU'RE OFFICIALLY ON NOTICE

2006-02-07T22:58:00.000-08:00

Dear NCAA Bracket Projection Experts,
Hey! Yeah "experts," we're talking to you! Joe Lunardi. Gregg Doyel. The CollegeRPI.com dude. Seth Davis. Listen up! The Super Bowl is over, the NCAA tournament selection is near and with football nothing but a distant memory, millions (thousands, hundreds, tens... depending who you are) of fans now turn their eyes to you. Well, you're officially on notice. We have developed a formula, a system, a method and a challenge to show a couple of hacks like us can predict the 2006 NCAA men's basketball tournament field and brackets better than you clowns. That's right, we're throwing down the gauntlet. We're out to show the college basketball world a couple of guys with nothing but time to waste can out-gun those who have fine-tuned their bracket craft into steady, internet gigs and late-night, obscure radio show appearances. Are you ready? Because I know we are.

First off, the challenge. I mean, it's impossible to know who is the best at the end of the day when there is no sort of scoring system to determine who is the winner. Well, we have set the parameters and we will be happy to discuss any changes should you disagree. The scoring system, simple:

One point for correctly picking a team that makes the field.
Two points for correctly picking the exact seed.
One point for missing the correct seed by +/- one.
One point for correctly picking the location where the team will play.

Easy enough, right. And, much like the game Dr. Naismith invented, the man with the most points wins. What do you win, you ask? Well, should you beat us hacks, we will change the name of the blog from "(Insert Expert) Is a No Talent Ass-Clown," to "(Insert Expert) Is a God!" from the time the brackets are announced to the time some crusty, NCAA hancho hands the national title trophy to the winning team. Surely, this will be an honor and a prize we can all agree on. In fact, you can put the honor on your resume, right above that Ivy League education.

We're so confident that we can defeat you, we're going to help you out. Right here you will be able to tell who we think is in, who is out, why they are seeded a certain way and why certain teams fall well-short of worthy NCAA selections. We'll even give you the formula. You can expect our projected brackets every Monday; however, you can guarantee our thoughts on certain teams every day of the week. In fact, we will provide logical, statistical arguments, just to prove we aren't crazy. And; we won't even get mad when you hurl lame insults like "any mock bracket that includes Colorado isn't a mock bracket at all. It's a joke bracket." We'll make our argument and then hurl our own insult back at you; however, in a much more witty manner; because, lets face it, it won't be hard.

So, the choice is up to you. You can either follow; or, get out of the way. If you choose to not pay attention, the consequences will be severe. The nation (or, our friends) will see we are the great, bracket sooth-sayers of our time. We will be the Yankees to your Royals, the Jack Bauer to your failed attempt at terrorism and the FBI to your poor attempt at a multi-million dollar NHL gambling ring!

In closing, we're coming! And Hell's coming with us you hear! Hell's coming with us! (Or, at the very least, a much more reasonable bracket projection than what you have created). One or the other.

Sincerely,
Mike and Dan (aka Two Hacks)