LAST MINUTE CHANGES!

It's never too late to make a couple of last minute changes. Here they are:

Memphis: Congrats, you're now a 1-seed.
Ohio State: You sucked today. Down to two you go.

Boston College: You now be a three.
Pittsburgh: You now be a four.

Kansas: Nice win. Up to a four.
Tennessee: You sucked at the SEC. Down to five you go.

I LIKE LOCKS!

Like Bradley.

Thanks for making us look smart, fellas. Sorry that as of Saturday some of the circus clowns still have not noticed. Oh well, we think it will be hard for them to keep you out of the tournament if you receive the automatic bid. Although, in order to preserve what little dignity they have left, we are sure they might try.

BREAKING YOUR BRACKET DOWN LIKE A TIM HARDAWAY CROSSOVER

Raise your hands if Gregg Doyel thinks you are silly. Well, Mr. Doyel says we’re silly because we have six MVC teams in the dance. He may think we are silly; but, we think it’s highly likely he pees sitting down. No worries, though, because it’s all so simple when you look at the numbers. And, the numbers say six Missouri Valley teams deserve to be in the dance. In fact, when we plug in the numbers, the MVC teams do not even fall within our 24 teams vying for the final eight spots. We dare you to tell us otherwise (but, seriously, if you have an argument why we should not, let us know).

Mr. Gregg “No Talent Ass-Clown” Doyel seems to have more on his side than we do; however, because even Jay Bilas (he of the worldwide leader*) thinks the MVC is getting too much credit. Then again, maybe Doyel and Bilas are in cahoots together in order to mount an assault on those of us courageous enough to challenge the mighty.

We do agree with Mr. Doyel on one point; however, which is the fact the Big 12 Conference really needs to stop sucking, and soon. Although, recent history seems to point to the fact the Big XII will continue to suck.

At any rate, here is the latest bracket breakdown and a quick breakdown of what’s on this post. First, the 24 teams vying for the eight spots. Second, who is in and who is out from last week. Third, the conference breakdown. Fourth; and, finally, the field by seeds.

The projection of the actual pairings will be up on Tuesday. We promise.

THE VIDEO IPODS
Michigan – (31, 0.5889, 2, 1, 0.6, 0.45) - 1.77
Indiana – (44, 0.5889, 4, 2, 0.3, 0.42) - 1.62
UNC-Wilmington – (37, 0.5197, 2, 2, 0.8, 0.54) - 1.50
Kentucky – (39, 0.5765, 1, 0, 0.7, 0.62) - 1.19
Syracuse – (32, 0.5834, 1, 0, 0.4, 0.56) - 0.86
Colorado – (47, 0.5606, 2, 1, 0.7, 0.44) - 0.79
Houston – (55, 0.5002, 2, 2, 0.9, 0.64) - 0.65
Arkansas – (57, 0.5765, 3, 2, 0.6, 0.36) - 0.45

THE PORTABLE CD PLAYERS
California – (65, 0.5498, 3, 3, 0.7, 0.63) - 0.40
South Carolina – (58, 0.5765, 3, 1, 0.5, 0.36) - 0.34
Hofstra – (46, 0.5197, 1, 2, 0.8, 0.62) - 0.29
Old Dominion – (52, 0.5197, 2, 2, 0.6, 0.46) - -0.06
Temple – (63, 0.5191, 3, 1, 0.6, 0.33) - -0.10
Vanderbilt – (61, 0.5765, 3, 1, 0.3, 0.44) - -0.11
Maryland – (45, 0.5793, 1, 0.5, 0.29) - -0.37
Minnesota – (64, 0.5889, 3, 2, 0.4, 0.25) - -0.60

THE EIGHT TRACK CASSETTES
Utah State – (50, 0.5226, 1, 5, 0.8, 0.55) - -0.59
UAB – (53, 0.5002, 0, 0, 0.8, 0.60) - -0.75
BYU – (56, 0.528, 1, 2, 0.7, 0.50) - -0.77
Air Force – (49, 0.528, 0, 2, 0.7, 0.58) - -0.93
Xavier – (75, 0.5191, 2, 0, 0.5, 0.56) - -1.25
Iowa State – (76, 0.5606, 3, 3, 0.3, 0.55) - -1.28
Miami – (73, 0.5793, 2, 0, 0.4, 0.38) - -1.41
Louisiana Tech – (62, 0.5226, 1, 3, 0.6, 0.50) - -1.56

<>SAY HELLO TO: Arkansas, Colorado and Houston
SAY GOODBYE TO: California, Iowa State and Vanderbilt

THE CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
Big East (9), Big 10 (7), MVC (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), Big 12 (4), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), C-USA (2)

THE FIELD
25+ POINT 1ST ROUND FAVORITES: Connecticut, Duke, Villanova, Memphis
TWOS: Iowa, Illinois, Michigan St., Texas
THREES: Gonzaga, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
FOURS: Florida, UCLA, George Washington, West Virginia
GEORGE BRETT (NO. 5): N.C. State, Northern Iowa, North Carolina, LSU
SIXES: Boston College, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Wisconsin
MICKEY MANTLE (NO. 7): Washington, Wichita State, Kansas, George Mason
EIGHTS: Marquette, Michigan, Bucknell, Creighton
NINES: Southern Illinois, Arizona, Nevada, Alabama
TENS: UNC-Wilmington, Indiana, Cincinnati, Missouri St.
ELEVENS: Seton Hall, Kentucky, Western Kentucky, Bradley
THE RICKY WILLIAMS SUSPENSION (IN MONTHS): San Diego State, Houston, Syracuse, Colorado
THE LUCKY NUMBER: Iona, Arkansas, Wisc.-Milwaukee, Murray State
FOURTEENS: Northern Arizona, Kent State, Winthrop, Northwestern State
PULLIN’ A HAMPTON: Penn, Pacific, Farleigh-Dickinson, IUPUI
DON’T BET ON IT: Georgia Southern, Southern, Albany, Delaware St.

* not really the worldwide leader in anything (except maybe lazy-eyed sports anchors). BOOYAH!

HOT BIG 12 BUBBLE ACTION!

For those of you who watched a bunch of people playing in the snow last night, a pair of key Big 12 Conference games took place that likely determined which teams in the league would be dancing. With Colorado and Iowa State in a fight to the death to see who will become the fourth Big 12 team to make the field and grab one of those highly coveted 12-seeds, both teams played games last night and both needed wins. To put it lightly, if you are a Colorado fan, aside from Jeremy Bloom, you are sitting pretty after last night.

COLORADO 84, OKLAHOMA 75
In short, the Sooner Schooner did what it usually does when it travels north to face a Big 12 school: it lost the trail, ran out of food and eventually died of dysentery. The Sooners loss is the Buffaloes gain; however, as Colorado likely needed one big win to put themselves in position to gain an invitation and now the committee would be sending one their way if the selection process took place to day.

Enough about the game; however, because the most disturbing thing that occurred last night was the fact the Colorado fans felt the need to rush the court. Now, I know this is a blog about who might make the tournament; but, this is clearly an issue that needs to be investigated and addressed immediately. As far as this blog is concerned, there are only three instances where fans of a power conference school are allowed to rush the court.

1. J.J. Reddick is standing at mid-court, all by himself and with nowhere to go. In this instance, not only is rushing the court endorsed, it’s also highly encouraged. Of course, once you are there, feel free to administer a beat down.

2. Free burritos.

3. Teammate kills other teammate. Coach lies. Coach gets caught in lie. NCAA investigation ensues. Coach quits. Entire team transfers. Former team members thrive in new environments. Team left with as many scholarships as local YMCA team. Team hires new coach. Realizing it is bad, real bad, team levels heavy sanction onto itself. NCAA concludes investigation. NCAA levels more sanctions: including the often used, often duplicated, “cancel half the season to make the life of coaches, players and fans who had nothing to do with the whole sordid episode even worse” technique. Player who killed other player pleads guilty. New team, two seasons removed, opens play in January. Team, now 381 days removed from last victory, gets last-second, overtime victory.

So there it is, written out for the world to see: the three scenarios where the fans of a power conference school can rush the court. Granted, No. 3 isn’t very likely to happen (Sic ‘Em), so fans might just want to stick to rules one and two when determining whether or not a court-storming is necessary.

NEBRASKA 73, IOWA STATE 63
If I had a fork and a bubble with an Iowa State logo, I would have popped it violently at the end of that horrendous performance. That was one pathetic display out there last night by the Cyclones as the “Hilton Magic” continues for road teams. To be honest, I’m pretty sure the Cyclones could have rolled five trained, circus monkeys out there and had a better shot of winning last night’s game. At the very least, the stuff (aka No. 2) the monkeys would have tossed around out there would not have stunk up the joint as much as the performance Curtis Stinson and company put on last night.

Well, Cyclone fans, at least you have wrestling. Oh, and Ames. Have fun.

LUNARDI IS A NO TALENT ASS CLOWN TEAM OF THE WEEK

Congratulations, Missouri State, you are the first “Lunardi is A No Talent Ass Clown” Team of the Week! Feel free to put the honor in your notes section for the game against Evansville this weekend.

We feel for you here. The computers love you, you won at Northern Iowa last weekend, you stand just outside the national polls and you have a winning record on the road. Yet, for some reason, Mr. Lunardi shows you no love (although the 2-5 record against top 50 might have something to do with it).

However, on this day of love, we are here to spread a little your direction. If you poor saps replaced Missouri in the Big 12 (a decision we would be all for, by the way) there would be no question as to whether or not Lunardi finds you tournament worthy. Instead, he places teams like Colorado ahead of you, which we find to be sad and equally pathetic.

At any rate, no worries, keep taking care of business and you will be sure to find your way into the field of 65.

OTHER TEAMS LUNARDI IS WAY OFF BASE WITH
VANDERBILT
The Commodores most likely need to get to .500 in the SEC to warrant a bid, but they have three quality wins (at Georgetown, Kentucky, at Kentucky) and their last three losses (at Alabama, Georgia, at Tennessee) were by a
combined 11 points, with one (Alabama) in overtime. They still have Florida, Tennessee and LSU at home as well as winnable road games against Georgia and South Carolina. There is no doubt Vanderbilt can play their way in or out of the tournament over the next three weeks.

SOUTH CAROLINA
With four of its remaining six games at home to finish the regular season, and the two road games against teams outside the top 100, the Gamecocks are in position to make a run. USC has a respectable RPI of 52, which should climb into the 40’s assuming wins in five or six of the remaining games.

AND THE TEAM LUNARDI IS CONSIDERING, YET NOBODY ELSE SHOULD BE
STANFORD
The Cardinal missed a golden opportunity last week with close losses at California and Gonzaga. Their RPI rating of 76 is going to be tough to move playing in the relatively weak Pac-10. Combine that with their lack of top 50 wins (1) and bad losses (4), and the Cardinal will be making reservations for New York soon (that is if they can even win enough games to get there).

THE BRACKET BREAKDOWN

For all of you with some time to kill and a chance to make your head spin, here is the breakdown by the numbers. Right now, the MVC has six teams in our projected bracket. Although we will concede the chances of the MVC receiving six bids is about as likely as this, by looking at the numbers, you really have no choice but to put six teams in right now. I mean, if the MVC were called the Big 10, would there be any doubt as to whether or not five or six teams get in. We’re guessing the whole thing will work itself out as Bradley will fall off the face of the Earth with Missouri State rising to the occasion.

Last four in: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Iowa State, UNC-Wilmington
First four out: Houston, Old Dominion, South Carolina, Colorado
Next four out: Hofstra, Maryland, Temple, UAB

The conference breakdown:
Big East (8), Big 10 (7), SEC (6), MVC (6), ACC (4), Big 12 (4), Pac-10 (4) Colonial (2)

And as for that grading system we talked about earlier, here is how that breaks down as well and how we filled out the final eight teams in the bracket. Remember, the grades assessed are a +/- comparison of a particular team against the other 23 teams vying for the eight available spots.

TEAM – (RPI, Conference RPI, Good Wins, Bad Losses, Last 10, Road Winning Pct.) – Grade

GOING TO THE PARTY
Alabama – (42, 0.5787, 2, 1, 0.7, 0.43) - 1.52
Bradley – (62, 0.5561, 4, 3, 0.6, 0.33) - 1.18
Cincinnati – (32, 0.5001, 2, 1, 0.3, 0.40) - 0.87
California – (55, 0.5513, 2, 3, 0.7, 0.63) - 0.69
Vanderbilt – (58, 0.5787, 3, 1, 0.4, 0.38) – 0.62
Kentucky – (44, 0.5787, 1, 0, 0.5, 0.58) - 0.57
Iowa State – (63, 0.5618, 3, 2, 0.4, 0.60) - 0.56
UNC-Wilmington – (45, 0.5174, 1, 2, 0.8, 0.54) - 0.47

THE SOUND OF THE TINY AIR MASS YOU HEAR IS YOUR BUBBLE BURSTING
Houston – (59, 0.5001, 2, 2, 0.7, 0.64) - 0.38
Old Dominion – (51, 0.5174, 2, 2, 0.6, 0.46) - 0.37
South Carolina – (52, 0.5787, 2, 1, 0.4, 0.36) - 0.10
Colorado – (49, 0.5618, 1, 1, 0.6, 0.50) - 0.06
Hofstra – (54, 0.5174, 1, 2, 0.8, 0.60) - 0.03
Maryland – (41, 0.5805, 1, 0, 0.4, 0.33) - 0.01
Temple – (57, 0.5201, 2, 3, 0.7, 0.36) - -0.14
UAB – (48, 0.5001, 0, 1, 0.8, 0.56) - -0.49

THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF SEATS AVAILABLE AT MADISON SQUARE GARDEN
Arkansas – (66, 0.5787, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.40) - -0.50
Minnesota – (72, 0.5894, 3, 2, 0.3, 0.29) - -0.78
Utah State – (53, 0.5167, 1, 5, 0.7, 0.50) - -0.79
Xavier – (74, 0.5201, 2, 0, 0.5, 0.56) - -0.79
Miami – (82, 0.5805, 2, 0, 0.6, 0.50) - -0.93
Air Force – (46, 0.5296, 0, 2, 0.6, 0.50) - -0.93
BYU – (61, 0.5296, 1, 3, 0.7, 0.45) - -1.03
Virginia – (56, 0.5805, 1, 2, 0.6, 0.22) - -1.05

NCAA BRACKET PROJECTION - 2/12/05

OK folks, here is the first bracket projection on what is sure to become a historic blog. More on the reasoning later on Tuesday; but, for now, here are the teams we have in the field, their seeds and where they are playing. Because we go all out, unlike some experts we know.

NCAA BRACKET PROJECTION – Through games of Feb. 12, 2006

ATLANTA REGIONAL
(1) Duke vs. (16) Southern – Greensboro, N. Car.
(8) George Mason vs. (9) Seton Hall – Greensboro, N. Car.
(4) Florida vs. (13) Iona – Jacksonville, Fla.
(5) Northern Iowa vs. (12) San Diego State – Jacksonville, Fla.
(6) Oklahoma vs. (11) Wisc.-Milwaukee – Greensboro, N. Car.
(3) Pittsburgh vs. (14) Kent State – Greensboro, N. Car.
(7) Washington vs. (10) Nevada – Auburn Hills, Mich.
(2) Iowa vs. (15) Northern Arizona – Auburn Hills, Mich.

MINNEAPOLIS REGIONAL
(1) Memphis vs. (16) Farleigh-Dickinson – Dallas, Texas
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Syracuse – Dallas, Texas
(4) Michigan State vs. (13) Murray State – Salt Lake City, Utah
(5) Georgetown vs. (12) Kentucky – Salt Lake City, Utah
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) UNC-Wilmington – Jacksonville, Fla.
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) Winthrop – Jacksonville, Fla.
(7) Kansas vs. (10) Southern Illinois – Dayton, Ohio
(2) West Virginia vs. (15) Delaware State – Dayton, Ohio

OAKLAND REGIONAL
(1) Villanova vs. (16) IUPUI – Philadelphia, Penn.
(8) Missouri State vs. (9) Michigan – Philadelphia, Penn.
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Iowa State – San Diego, Calif.
(5) LSU vs. (12) Western Kentucky – San Diego, Calif.
(6) North Carolina vs. (11) Marquette – Auburn Hills, Mich.
(3) Illinois vs. (14) Northwestern State – Auburn Hills, Mich.
(7) Wichita State vs. (10) California – Dallas, Texas
(2) Texas vs. (15) Albany – Dallas, Texas

WASHINGTON, D.C. REGIONAL
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Lipscomb/Georgia Southern – Philadelphia, Penn.
(8) Bucknell vs. (9) Indiana – Philadelphia, Penn.
(4) George Washington vs. (13) Bradley – San Diego, Calif.
(5) North Carolina State vs. (12) Vanderbilt – San Diego, Calif.
(6) Boston College vs. (11) Alabama – Salt Lake City, Utah
(3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Pacific – Salt Lake City, Utah
(7) Arizona vs. (10) Cincinnnati – Dayton, Ohio
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Pennsylvania – Dayton, Ohio

TEAMS LEADING THEIR RESPECTIVE CONFERENCES IN BOLD

THE SIMPLE MATH

Now that we have officially put you on notice, it’s time to let you clowns know how we do things around here. It’s a simple system, really, so here are some things you have to keep in mind when taking a look at the projected brackets we will post each Monday:

1) In the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship, there are 31 automatic bids. In our bracket, much like your lame bracket projection, those 31 spots will go to the current leader of each conference. Although we may think teams like Nevada will eventually fall out of the conference lead and not make the tournament (since Nick Fezekas should go do you know what to himself), we give them their due for holding the conference lead at that particular point. After all, and as the ladies would agree, we’re nice like that.

2) 65-31=34. Simple math I know; but, we’re pretty sure some of you could screw that up. What’s the 34? Well, it’s the number of at-large bids available to the teams not cool enough to win their conference; but, still get invited to this invitation-only affair. Each Monday, we will say who belongs; and, sadly, discuss who doesn’t.

Now that we have the basic math out of the way, it’s time to discuss how we pick the 34 at-large teams.

First off, we identify the tournament locks (for example, the group of hillbillies out yonder) and place them into the field. Once we do this, it leaves about eight spots open for a spot in the tournament. We take the non-locks (around 24 teams) and place them into a “bubble pool” in which they get graded on their overall numbers. We input the numbers into our fancy equation which spits grades out in a fancy top-to-bottom order. The top eight teams get into the tournament, the other 16 are left pondering about a party nobody wants to attend.

Now, we might be going over some of your heads here; but, the equation we use involves giving certain categories more weight and other categories less weight as each team is compared against one another in each particular category. The categories we look at for each team are as follows:

RPI
Conference RPI
Quality wins (wins versus the top 50)
Bad losses (losses outside the top 100)
Last 10 games
Road/Neutral site record

After considering the following six categories, the fine product Bill Gates gave us tells us which eight teams rank the highest and we place them into our field of 65.

Once we have our field of 65, we seed the field. We seed the field using the fancy equation as well, except we add three factors:

A team's rank within its conference
AP poll
Coaches' poll

Once this is done, we follow all the rules of bracketing as stated by the insane governing body and complete our projection.

After posting the projected field each Monday, we will highlight key games during the week and provide our analysis as how it affects each team in the projected bracket. By doing so, we hope it gives everyone a better idea as to why a group of bitter, powerful white men might shatter your dreams on March 12, 2006.

EXPERTS: YOU'RE OFFICIALLY ON NOTICE

Dear NCAA Bracket Projection Experts,
Hey! Yeah "experts," we're talking to you! Joe Lunardi. Gregg Doyel. The CollegeRPI.com dude. Seth Davis. Listen up! The Super Bowl is over, the NCAA tournament selection is near and with football nothing but a distant memory, millions (thousands, hundreds, tens... depending who you are) of fans now turn their eyes to you. Well, you're officially on notice. We have developed a formula, a system, a method and a challenge to show a couple of hacks like us can predict the 2006 NCAA men's basketball tournament field and brackets better than you clowns. That's right, we're throwing down the gauntlet. We're out to show the college basketball world a couple of guys with nothing but time to waste can out-gun those who have fine-tuned their bracket craft into steady, internet gigs and late-night, obscure radio show appearances. Are you ready? Because I know we are.

First off, the challenge. I mean, it's impossible to know who is the best at the end of the day when there is no sort of scoring system to determine who is the winner. Well, we have set the parameters and we will be happy to discuss any changes should you disagree. The scoring system, simple:

One point for correctly picking a team that makes the field.
Two points for correctly picking the exact seed.
One point for missing the correct seed by +/- one.
One point for correctly picking the location where the team will play.

Easy enough, right. And, much like the game Dr. Naismith invented, the man with the most points wins. What do you win, you ask? Well, should you beat us hacks, we will change the name of the blog from "(Insert Expert) Is a No Talent Ass-Clown," to "(Insert Expert) Is a God!" from the time the brackets are announced to the time some crusty, NCAA hancho hands the national title trophy to the winning team. Surely, this will be an honor and a prize we can all agree on. In fact, you can put the honor on your resume, right above that Ivy League education.

We're so confident that we can defeat you, we're going to help you out. Right here you will be able to tell who we think is in, who is out, why they are seeded a certain way and why certain teams fall well-short of worthy NCAA selections. We'll even give you the formula. You can expect our projected brackets every Monday; however, you can guarantee our thoughts on certain teams every day of the week. In fact, we will provide logical, statistical arguments, just to prove we aren't crazy. And; we won't even get mad when you hurl lame insults like "any mock bracket that includes Colorado isn't a mock bracket at all. It's a joke bracket." We'll make our argument and then hurl our own insult back at you; however, in a much more witty manner; because, lets face it, it won't be hard.

So, the choice is up to you. You can either follow; or, get out of the way. If you choose to not pay attention, the consequences will be severe. The nation (or, our friends) will see we are the great, bracket sooth-sayers of our time. We will be the Yankees to your Royals, the Jack Bauer to your failed attempt at terrorism and the FBI to your poor attempt at a multi-million dollar NHL gambling ring!

In closing, we're coming! And Hell's coming with us you hear! Hell's coming with us! (Or, at the very least, a much more reasonable bracket projection than what you have created). One or the other.

Sincerely,
Mike and Dan (aka Two Hacks)